Event Title
Projecting Family Support Needed to Assist Older Canadian Living in the Community, 2006-2031
Start Date
16-10-2009 11:00 AM
End Date
16-9-2009 12:30 PM
Description
Canadian policy makers are increasingly interested in planning for the inevitable increase in home care services that will be fuelled by population aging and community care policy. Our goal is to advance understanding of the patterns and predictors of disability and support among the population aged 65+ and use this information to project future health human resources. Using the 2002 General Social Survey, logistic regressions estimated the probability of an individual with specific characteristics of having a specific level of disability and those with a long term health problems using one of three types of support networks (formal, informal, or mixed). These parameters were applied at five-year intervals in Statistics Canada LifePaths microsimulation model to project future demand. When looking at the population needing assistance, results from the micro-simulations show an increase from 630,000 to over 1.3 millions between 2006-2031. Results also show an increase in the proportion of elderly having to rely exclusively on the formal network (40% in 2006 to 44% in 2031. By applying the median amount of assistance per week by age and sex (GSS 2002) to the projected population who will receive assistance, the number of hours per week received is projected to double from 2006 to 2031. This trend is most pronounced among the 85+ in that the amount of assistance is projected to almost triple from 2006-2031. Despite recognition of the steady increase in demand for home care, Canada has made little headway in developing consensus on policy directions. A discussion of the policy implications of these findings will highlight the need for greater recognition, better working conditions and career paths for front-line home support workers who provide the majority of care among paid home care providers.
Yann Décarie is a Ph.D student in Demography at L’Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS) under the supervision of Alain Bélanger. Yann received a degree in Statistics from the Université de Sherbrooke and an undergraduate degree in Actuarial Science from the Université de Montréal. Since 2006, Yann has been working with Professor Jacques Légaré and Professor Janice Keefe as a research assistant on a project related to the projection of disabled people and home care needs. Yann’s research interests are on ageing, projection methods, microsimulation and population health.
Included in
Projecting Family Support Needed to Assist Older Canadian Living in the Community, 2006-2031
Canadian policy makers are increasingly interested in planning for the inevitable increase in home care services that will be fuelled by population aging and community care policy. Our goal is to advance understanding of the patterns and predictors of disability and support among the population aged 65+ and use this information to project future health human resources. Using the 2002 General Social Survey, logistic regressions estimated the probability of an individual with specific characteristics of having a specific level of disability and those with a long term health problems using one of three types of support networks (formal, informal, or mixed). These parameters were applied at five-year intervals in Statistics Canada LifePaths microsimulation model to project future demand. When looking at the population needing assistance, results from the micro-simulations show an increase from 630,000 to over 1.3 millions between 2006-2031. Results also show an increase in the proportion of elderly having to rely exclusively on the formal network (40% in 2006 to 44% in 2031. By applying the median amount of assistance per week by age and sex (GSS 2002) to the projected population who will receive assistance, the number of hours per week received is projected to double from 2006 to 2031. This trend is most pronounced among the 85+ in that the amount of assistance is projected to almost triple from 2006-2031. Despite recognition of the steady increase in demand for home care, Canada has made little headway in developing consensus on policy directions. A discussion of the policy implications of these findings will highlight the need for greater recognition, better working conditions and career paths for front-line home support workers who provide the majority of care among paid home care providers.
Yann Décarie is a Ph.D student in Demography at L’Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS) under the supervision of Alain Bélanger. Yann received a degree in Statistics from the Université de Sherbrooke and an undergraduate degree in Actuarial Science from the Université de Montréal. Since 2006, Yann has been working with Professor Jacques Légaré and Professor Janice Keefe as a research assistant on a project related to the projection of disabled people and home care needs. Yann’s research interests are on ageing, projection methods, microsimulation and population health.