Faculty
Political Science
Supervisor Name
Zack Taylor
Keywords
political science, psephology, opinion polls, election prediction, forecasting
Description
Psephology is the statistical study of election data, often used by data journalists and political operatives to predict the results of elections before they occur. In a Canadian context, this new field of data science has been notably used by CBC and Maclean's to create prediction models for federal and provincial elections.
This project created one such model to predict the 2022 Ontario General Election. It ran under the conventional Uniform Swing method with regional poll averages from CBC News used as inputs.
Acknowledgements
Thank you to Professor Zack Taylor, the Undergraduate Student Research Internship program, the Faculty of Political Science and the International Relations Program.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License
Document Type
Poster
Included in
The Data Science of Predicting Elections
Psephology is the statistical study of election data, often used by data journalists and political operatives to predict the results of elections before they occur. In a Canadian context, this new field of data science has been notably used by CBC and Maclean's to create prediction models for federal and provincial elections.
This project created one such model to predict the 2022 Ontario General Election. It ran under the conventional Uniform Swing method with regional poll averages from CBC News used as inputs.