Finding the future in policy discourse: an analysis of city resilience plans

Authors

Zack Taylor, Dept. of Political Science, Western UniversityFollow
Jo Fitzgibbons, University of British Columbia
Carrie L. Mitchell, University of Waterloo

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-28-2020

Volume

55

Issue

5

First Page

831

URL with Digital Object Identifier

https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2020.1760235

Last Page

843

Abstract

Managing future uncertainty is the essence of planning. How planners conceptualize the future therefore has important practical and normative implications as contemporary decisions have long-term impacts that may be irreversible and distribute costs and benefits across society. A discourse analysis of strategies prepared under the 100 Resilient Cities programme reveals that while they are ostensibly forward-looking and cognizant of uncertainty, most presume a knowable future (epistemic certainty) and focus on well-understood or recently experienced risks. Few acknowledge the future’s inherent unknowability (ontic uncertainty). Those that do emphasize community self-help; others describe top-down, government-led initiatives. Most strategies also present an image of societal consensus, downplaying the potential for legitimate disagreement over means and ends (discursive uncertainty). These findings suggest that new conceptualizations of future uncertainty have had limited impacts on planning practice.

Notes

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