MPA Major Research Papers

Date of Award

11-15-2023

Degree Type

Major Research Paper

Degree Name

Master of Public Administration

Program

Political Science

Geographical Areas

Grand Erie District School Board, Greater Essex County District School Board, Lambton Kent District School Board, Southwestern Ontario, Thames Valley District School Board, Waterloo Region District School Board

Abstract

School board trustees operate at the nexus of provincial constraint and local representation, where power is collective, but positionality matters. Enhancing school board governance begins with democratic municipal elections and the campaign conditions shaping candidate prospects. This research report asks whether trustee candidate spending explains English public school board electoral outcomes in Southwestern Ontario. The report delves into the relationship between expenditures and district vote shares, the interplay between competitiveness and spending among successful candidates, and the comparative spending trends of incumbent and challenger victors. Applying a theory-driven quantitative approach centred on candidate spending decisions addresses research gaps in school board campaign dynamics. The project operationalizes campaign concepts using public sources under the Municipal Elections Act (1996) to build a unique dataset of all trustee candidates in five Southwestern Ontario cases for 2022. Inferential and descriptive statistics indicate that while spending decisions are not independently determinative of victory, they correlate with campaign conditions, suggesting competition and incumbency influence winning candidates. Within district races, vote shares increase along with spending levels, winning trustees respond to competitiveness with increased spending, and winners exhibit no notable spending gap based on incumbency. The findings highlight the interaction between spending decisions and district-level victories, concluding that variables beyond the candidates' control still influence outcomes across all election cases. This research report emphasizes the district-specific operation of causal mechanisms, suggesting that candidates facing challenging campaign conditions can strategically employ spending to enhance vote shares and secure seats.

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