NATO Cyber Defence, 2000-2022
Abstract
The emergence of more devastating and organized cyber attacks by non-attributable threat actors internationally raises questions about whether classical deterrence theory in its contemporary form has assisted important military defence alliances, like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), to adapt to the changing threat landscape. The timeline of the NATO Alliance's adaptation to external cyber threats is examined at critical historical junctures. Changes and adaptation within internal policy-making processes at NATO headquarters and its affiliated centres, think tanks, and military bases are analysed with input from informed decision-makers. The research project demonstrates that NATO policy substantively changed over the period 2000 to June 30, 2022 because the scale and measure of cyber capabilities among 30 NATO Allies (particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic) contributed to a two-decade pattern of increasing defensive preparations, including new technologies, extensive military exercises, and military planning intended to counter amplifying hybrid threats in the 'gray zone' of conventional warfare. NATO implemented different security solutions to cyber space challenges, demonstrating the application of contemporary deterrence theory to current policy. Critical junctures, like major international precedent-setting cyber attacks, influenced cyber defence policy developments at NATO and internal policymaking processes like NATO Summitry. Two conceptual lenses—historical institutionalism and social learning—illuminate understanding of the evolution of NATO's policy development, military exercises, and the training initiatives of affiliated NATO organizations over the period 2000-2022.