Stochastic Source Modelling and Tsunami Analysis of the 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii Earthquake
Abstract
The Mw 7.8 2012 Haida Gwaii Earthquake triggered a tsunami that highlighted the importance of tsunami hazard assessment on Canada’s Pacific coast. Stochastic source modelling serves as a valuable method to assess future tsunami hazard and has not been performed for this region. The source models characterize the uncertainty of earthquake ruptures by considering variability in fault geometry and slip heterogeneity, which, in turn, allows the consideration of a wide range of tsunami scenarios in the Haida Gwaii region. The model predictions are constrained by observational data and past source inversion studies. One hundred twenty-eight stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated using the stochastic source modelling method to assess tsunami hazard via tsunami inundation simulations of the target region and conduct sensitivity analyses of tsunami height variability. The resulting models can promote better-informed risk management decisions and future probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis in this region.