Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Thesis Format

Monograph

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy

Program

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Supervisor

Simonovic, Slobodan P.

Abstract

The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. The model is based on the principles of system dynamics simulation in order to analyze changes in the Earth system using feedback processes. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation.

This thesis focusses on the development of global water supplies necessary to keep pace with a growing population and global economy using an integrated feedback-based approach. The main contributions of this work include: (i) implementation of the energy-economy system based on the principles of system dynamics simulation in the ANEMI model; (ii) incorporation of water supply as an additional sector in the global economy that parallels the production of energy, inclusion of climate change effects on land yield and potentially arable land for food production, and (iii) addition of nutrient cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus to the model as indicators of global water quality, which affect the production of surface water supplies.

With the new structure of the ANEMI model, a series of experiments are conducted in order to examine the impacts of climate change throughout the Earth system, evaluate potential limits to population growth through the depletion of food and water supplies and the generation of pollution, assess the potential impacts of water quality on the development of water supplies, and analyze the role of water supply development of conventional and alternative water supplies in adapting to water stress. The role of alternative water supplies in the form of desalination and wastewater reuse are assessed to fulfill future water demands beyond conventional water supplies of surface and groundwater.

Evaluation of the model performance demonstrates that the model can reproduce historical trends related to global change within the Earth system. The experimental results show that investment in alternative water supplies on a global scale should be made in advance of conventional water supply depletion, as time delays may result in prolonged increases in global water stress. It was also found that the role of technological change was a greater factor for meeting future food production requirements than the effect of a changing climate. The impact of water quality degradation and the depletion of available water resource on water supply development, was found to be understated when studied on the global scale. It is recommended that the water supply development system developed in this work be extended to a finer spatial scale where the effects of water depletion and water quality degradation can be more thoroughly examined.

Summary for Lay Audience

The ANEMI model is a computer simulation model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation.

This thesis focusses on assessing water supply development within ANEMI from an economic perspective. The main contributions of this work include: (i) the addition of a new energy-economy system in the ANEMI model; (ii) addition of a novel water supply development model, (iii) inclusion of climate change effects on the food production sector, and (iv) addition of a water quality sector which affects the development of surface water supplies.

With the new structure of the ANEMI model, a series of experiments are conducted in order to; examine the impacts of climate change throughout the Earth system, evaluate potential limits to the population through the depletion of food and water supplies and the generation of pollution, assess the potential impacts of water quality on the development of water supplies, and analyze the role of water supply development of conventional and alternative water supplies in adapting to global water stress. The role of alternative water supplies in the form of desalination and wastewater reuse are assessed to fulfill future water demands beyond conventional water supplies of surface and groundwater.

The experimental results show that investment in alternative water supplies on a global scale should be made in advance of conventional water supply depletion, as time delays may result in prolonged increases in global water stress. It was also found that the role of technological change was a greater factor for meeting future food production requirements than the effect of a changing climate. The impact of water quality degradation and the depletion of available water resource on water supply development, was found to be understated when studied on the global scale.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Download

Share

COinS