Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Thesis Format

Monograph

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy

Program

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Supervisor

Simonovic, Slobodan P.

Abstract

Confronted with rapid urbanization, intensified tourism, population densification, increased migration, and climate change impacts, coastal cities are facing more challenges now than ever before. Traditional disaster management approaches are no longer sufficient to address the increased pressures facing urban areas. A paradigm shift from disaster risk reduction to disaster resilience building strategies is required to provide holistic, integrated, and sustainable disaster management looking forward. To address some of the shortcomings in current disaster resilience assessment research, a mathematical and computational framework was developed to help quantify, compare, and visualize dynamic disaster resilience. The proposed methodological framework for disaster resilience combines physical, economic, engineering, health, and social spatio-temporal impacts and capacities of urban systems in order to provide a more holistic representation of disaster resilience.

To capture the dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics of resilience and gauge the effectiveness of potential climate change adaptation options, a disaster resilience simulator tool (DRST) was developed to employ the mathematical framework. The DRST is applied to a case study in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation model focuses on the impacts of climate change-influenced riverine flooding and sea level rise for three future climates based on the results of the CGCM3 global climate model and two (2) future emissions scenarios. The output of the analyses includes a dynamic set of resilience maps and graphs to demonstrate changes in disaster resilience in both space and time. The DRST demonstrates the value of a quantitative resilience assessment approach to disaster management. Simulation results suggest that various adaptation options such as access to emergency funding, provision of mobile hospital services, and managed retreat can all help to increase disaster resilience. Results also suggest that, at a regional scale, Metro Vancouver is relatively resilient to climate change influenced-hydrometeorological hazards, however it is not distributed proportionately across the region. Although a pioneering effort by nature, the methodological and computational framework behind the DRST could ultimately provide decision support to disaster management professionals, policy makers, and urban planners.

Summary for Lay Audience

Coastal cities are facing more challenges now than ever before. Traditional disaster management approaches are no longer sufficient to address the increased pressures facing urban areas. A shift from disaster risk reduction to disaster resilience building strategies is required to provide sustainable disaster management. Disaster resilience is the ability of a system (like a city) to respond and recover from a disaster and includes conditions that allow the system (city) to “bounce back”. In order to address some of the shortcomings in existing research, a framework was developed to help quantify, compare, and visualize dynamic disaster resilience. The proposed framework combines physical, economic, engineering, health, and social impacts to determine a city’s resilience in time and space. A tool like the one presented in this dissertation can assist emergency planners and decision makers in preparing for, and responding to, disaster situations.

A computerized tool was developed to employ the framework. This tool uses local data related to buildings, people, cell phone towers, power distribution, and the economy to simulate how various city systems behave before, during, and after a flood event. The tool outputs graphs and maps to show the changes in both time and space. The results demonstrate the value of a quantitative resilience assessment approach to disaster management. The results for a case study in Metro Vancouver, BC, Canada shows that emergency funding, provision of mobile hospital services, and managed retreat can all help increase disaster resilience. The framework used to develop the tool could ultimately provide decision support to disaster management professionals, policy makers, and urban planners.

Download

Share

COinS