Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy

Program

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Supervisor

Slobodan P. Simonovic

Abstract

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI (version 2) represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of the ANEMI model version 2 is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modelling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adopting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modelling framework. This thesis presents the ANEMI model version 2 and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. Two levels of the model are developed and presented here. The first one represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system on a global scale (ANEMI version 2). The second one is developed for a regional presentation of Canada (ANEMI_CDN). The development of the Canada model is based on the top-down approach and various disaggregation techniques. The disaggregation technique also extends the capability of the ANEMI model version 2 in generating monthly data, while the model runs with yearly time step. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI model integrates an economic approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, with climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation.

Several of the model sectors are built from the basic structure of the previous version of the ANEMI model (version 1.2) developed by Davies (2009) and reported by Davies and Simonovic (2010; 2011). However, they are integrated in a novel way, particularly the water sectors. The integration of optimization within the simulation framework of the ANEMI model version 2 is timely, as recognition grows of the importance of energy-based economic activities in determining long-term Earth-system behaviour. Experimentation with different policy scenarios demonstrates the consequences of these activities on future behaviour of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system through feedback based interactions. The use of the model ANEMI version 2 and ANEMI_CDN improves both scientific understanding and socio-economic policy development strategy.

This thesis describes the model structure in detail and illustrates its use through the analysis of three policy scenarios in both global and Canadian perspectives.

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