Water Resources Research Report



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This report aims to present an alternate approach to climate change impact mod- elling of water resources. The focus of the project is on the analysis of existing wa- ter resources management guidelines specifically targeting critical hydrologic events (extreme floods in this case). The critical hydrologic events are converted to their corresponding meteorologic conditions via use of an event based hydrologic model. The local climatic signal is generated by use of a non-parametric weather generator linked to outputs from a global climate model for three climate scenarios, and their corresponding frequency curves generated. Then, a critical hydrologic event of inter- est is selected, its corresponding meteorological condition obtained, and its frequency of occurrence (one for each climate scenario) determined.

A scenario selected specifically to study the problem of flooding in the basin showed more frequent occurrence of flooding for nearly all magnitudes of floods. An- other scenario, selected for studying droughts depicts a lesser tendency of extreme flooding events. Therefore, ranges of estimates of changes of frequency of occurrence of critical hydrologic events are obtained in response to changing climatic conditions. Based on these estimates, recommendations for changing current basin management guidelines are provided. They are categorized into three distinct categories: (i) regula- tory (where a review of rules, regulations and operation of current flood management infrastructure are suggested); (ii) budgetary (where investment in new infrastructure, as well as increased maintenance costs of present and future infrastructure, can lead to a need of having higher operating budgets); and (iii) engineering (recommending a review of current design standards of critical infrastructure).

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario


London, Ontario, Canada


Inverse approach, Assessment of climatic change, Frequency analysis, Weather generator, Event hydrologic model, Water resources management guidelines


Civil and Environmental Engineering


Report no.: 052

Inverse Flood Risk Modelling of The Upper Thames River Basin