Location

Victoria South Ballroom, Ottawa Marriott Hotel

Event Website

http://sociology.uwo.ca/cluster/en/projects/knowledge_mobilization/2015/2015_conference/index.html#2015 Conference

Start Date

19-3-2015 5:00 PM

End Date

19-3-2015 5:15 PM

Description

Poster Presentation

The emergence of a globalized economy has given rise to ‘global cities’ where knowledge, resource and human capital conglomerate – often at the cost of outmigration of resources in smaller cities. In the Canadian context, the growth of a few major centers is contrasted with many smaller and peripheral cities that may be coping with shrinking populations and economic decline. These effects are increasingly compounded by a second demographic transition, which is characterized by falling birth rates and an aging population. Continued loss of population, changing demographic structure, and economic decline can lead to a myriad of challenges, including underused infrastructure, high vacancy rates, and socio-economic inequality. As Statistics Canada’s population projections are limited to the provincial, territorial and national level, individual municipalities are left to calculate their own projections, which could be hindered by a lack of resources, the complexity of calculating local-scale migration rates, or simply may not be done. This paper reviews the methodological differences reflected in the approaches taken by various levels of government and concludes that more complex, time consuming and expensive models are used at higher levels of governance and in larger cities and are more likely to provide more accurate and precise results. Smaller and peripheral cities tend to use simpler, less time- and resource-intensive methods. An assessment framework of nine criteria concluded that the share capture method is the best methodological alternative for local scale population projection. The share capture model is applied to every municipality (with population above 10,000) in Ontario and projected dependency ratios are calculated to ascertain the future distribution of aging communities in Ontario.


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Mar 19th, 5:00 PM Mar 19th, 5:15 PM

Local Scale Population Projection Methods: Shrinking and Aging Communities

Victoria South Ballroom, Ottawa Marriott Hotel

Poster Presentation

The emergence of a globalized economy has given rise to ‘global cities’ where knowledge, resource and human capital conglomerate – often at the cost of outmigration of resources in smaller cities. In the Canadian context, the growth of a few major centers is contrasted with many smaller and peripheral cities that may be coping with shrinking populations and economic decline. These effects are increasingly compounded by a second demographic transition, which is characterized by falling birth rates and an aging population. Continued loss of population, changing demographic structure, and economic decline can lead to a myriad of challenges, including underused infrastructure, high vacancy rates, and socio-economic inequality. As Statistics Canada’s population projections are limited to the provincial, territorial and national level, individual municipalities are left to calculate their own projections, which could be hindered by a lack of resources, the complexity of calculating local-scale migration rates, or simply may not be done. This paper reviews the methodological differences reflected in the approaches taken by various levels of government and concludes that more complex, time consuming and expensive models are used at higher levels of governance and in larger cities and are more likely to provide more accurate and precise results. Smaller and peripheral cities tend to use simpler, less time- and resource-intensive methods. An assessment framework of nine criteria concluded that the share capture method is the best methodological alternative for local scale population projection. The share capture model is applied to every municipality (with population above 10,000) in Ontario and projected dependency ratios are calculated to ascertain the future distribution of aging communities in Ontario.

https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/pclc_conf/2015/Day1/34

 

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