Discussion Paper no. 00-2


Projections since the start of the Canada Pension Plan have been reasonably accurate with regard to population size, but they have under-projected population aging, and thus the ratio of beneficiaries to contributors. A case is made for long terms assumptions including fertility of 1.6 births per woman, life expectancy of 85, and net immigration of 0.47 per 100 population. By 2026, there will be fewer than three persons aged 20-64 per person aged 65 and over, compared to over six when the program was started. According to medium projections, the proportion 20-64 to 65+ will change from 4.9 in 2000 to 2.2 in 2100. This will also be in the context of a slower growing and aging labour force. Population policies are considered that would seek to avoid population decline and reduce the pace of aging.