Doctor of Philosophy
Statistics and Actuarial Sciences
Numerous insurance products linked to risky assets have emerged rapidly in the last couple of decades. These products have option-embedded features and typically involve at least two risk factors, namely interest and mortality risks. The need for models to capture risk factors' behaviours accurately is enormous and critical for insurance companies. The primary objective of this thesis is to develop pricing and hedging frameworks for option-embedded longevity products addressing correlated risk factors. Various methods are employed to facilitate the computation of prices and risk measures of longevity products including those with maturity benefits. Furthermore, in order to be prepared for the implementation of the new International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 17, the thesis's secondary objective is to provide a methodology for computing risk margins under the impending regulatory requirements. This is demonstrated using a property and casualty (P&C) insurance example and taking advantage of P&C data availability.
To accomplish the above-mentioned objectives, five self-contained but related research works are undertaken and described as follows. (i) A pricing framework for annuities is constructed, where interest and mortality rates are both stochastic and dependent. The short-rate process and the force of mortality follow the two-factor Hull-White model and Lee-Carter model, respectively. (ii) The framework in (i) is further developed by adopting the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model for the short-rate process to price guarantee annuity options (GAOs). The change of measure technique together with the comonotonicity theory is utilised to facilitate the computation of GAO prices. (iii) A further modelling framework extension is attained by considering a two-decrement model for GAO's valuation and risk measurement. Interest rate, mortality and lapse risks are assumed correlated and they are all modelled as affine-diffusion processes. Risk measures are calculated via the moment-based density method. (iv) We introduce a regime-switching set up for the valuation of guaranteed minimum maturity benefits (GMMBs). A hidden Markov model (HMM) modulates the evolution of risk processes and the HMM-based filtering technique is employed to generate the risk-factor models' parameter estimates. An analytical expression for GMMB value is derived with the aid of the change of measure technique in combination with a Fourier-transform approach. (v) Finally, a paid-incurred chain method is customised to model Ontario's automobile claim development triangular data set over a 15-year period, and the moment-based density method is applied to approximate the distributions of outstanding claim liabilities. The risk margins are determined through risk measures as prescribed by the IFRS 17. Sensitivity analysis is performed for risk margins using the bootstrap method.
Zhao, Yixing, "Valuation and Risk Management of Some Longevity and P&C Insurance Products" (2019). Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository. 6157.