Date of Award
2006
Degree Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy
Program
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Supervisor
Dr. Slobodan Simonovic
Abstract
Finite water resources are facing great challenges due to rapid population growth and economic development. Many international organizations such as the World Bank and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) are calling for innovative approaches to the assessment, development and management of freshwater resources; stressing the need to share experiential knowledge effectively so that the benefits from new approaches to water management can be realized at operational levels where decisions are made. The lack of certainty associated with the problem of water resources management is posing a great challenge to the design, planning and management of water resource systems. Risk analysis techniques are useful in the decision making process; increasing insight into the problem while providing a range of considered options. The probabilistic approach has been extensively used to deal with the problem of reliability of water resource systems. However, it usually fails to address the problem of uncertainty that comes with human input, subjectivity, lack of history and incomplete record keeping. This study explores the utility of fuzzy set theory in the field of water resource systems reliability analysis through the development of a methodology that considers all aspects of system reliability in a fuzzy environment where subjectivity, human input, and lack of previous records impede the decision making process. iii The study contributes to this field by introducing three fuzzy reliability measures: (i) a combined reliability-vulnerability index, (ii) a robustness index, and (iii) a resiliency index. These measures have the capability of evaluating the operational performance of complex water resource systems. The study also extends the application of the proposed fuzzy measures to identify weak points of the water supply system using a simple and comprehensive computational procedure. The study links the proposed fuzzy reliability analysis approach and the possibility-probability transformation approach to provide a generic framework for managing the vagueness and randomness of uncertainties. The second contribution of this study is the development of a computerized tool for risk assessment and management; the Risk Assessment Support System (RASS), which accommodates two different approaches for qualitative and quantitative framing of uncertainty, respectively; (i) fuzzy approach, and (ii) probabilistic approach. The RASS is designed to provide a simple, comprehensive and user-friendly tool that accommodates different levels of decision making and promotes public interest in risk management
Recommended Citation
El-Baroudy, Ibrahim, "FUZZY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS" (2006). Digitized Theses. 5136.
https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/digitizedtheses/5136